A victory by four points is what the Melbourne Rebels need in their final Domestic AU match against the Western Force in Newcastle in order to qualify for next week’s semi-final.
In the Australian domestic competition the top team advances automatically to the final, which will be played in a fortnight. The teams finishing in the next two positions on the log then play in a semi-final to decide who will travel to the decider at the home of the top team.
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The Brumbies, with 28 points and a seven log point buffer on the second placed Reds, have already qualified for a home final. Their final league game against the Reds later on Saturday - note that both games this week will be played on Saturday - doesn’t have any relevance to the final league position for them. They will play the final at Gio Stadium regardless of what happens this weekend.
The Reds will also host next week’s semi-final. What this week will decide is who goes through to face them in that play-off game - the currently third placed Waratahs or the Rebels. The Waratahs have concluded the league phase of their season and are currently four log points ahead of the Rebels. The Rebels currently have a points difference of 12 and the Waratahs ended on 15.
It’s an easy formula to work out - if the Rebels win with a bonus point they go through to next week’s semi-final in Brisbane, if they win by four points or more the bonus point won’t matter. They will go through.
Given that the Force have lost every game since their return to the top flight in Australia there won’t be too much hope in Sydney of their team surviving the weekend. By Saturday we will know who the semi-finalists will be, and it should be Reds v Rebels at Suncorp Stadium.
MELBOURNE REBELS V WESTERN FORCE (NEWCASTLE, SATURDAY 6.55AM. SS GRANDSTAND)
The Rebels have experienced a timely boost with the return to fitness of fullback and captain Dane Haylett-Petty. Rebels coach Dave Wessels raised a few eyes recently when he suggested that the form of stand-in last line of defence Reece Hodge might make it difficult for Haylett-Petty to get back in, but it turns out that was just humour.
Haylett-Petty’s return means Hodge moves to outside centre, where he will partner Billy Meakes, while Matt To’omua shifts back to flyhalf after playing inside centre for the past few games. Tom Pincus comes onto the right wing.
The only change to the pack sees loose-forward Richard Hardwick come in for Brad Wilkin, who drops to the bench.
Force coach Tim Sampson has made just one change to his pack, with Brynard Stander coming back into the side, though this time as an openside flank instead of No8. In the backs All Black Richard Kahui has been left out, with Kyle Godwin shifting to his position at outside centre. Byron Ralston takes Godwin’s place on the wing.
Prediction: Rebels by 15.
QUEENSLAND REDS V BRUMBIES (BRISBANE, SATURDAY 11.20 LIVE ON SS GRANDSTAND)
The Reds have a few key backs back from injury, while Harry Hoppert returns at loosehead prop in what is the only change to the pack. There is though change to the big men on the bench, with the two South African brothers JP and Ruan Smith back just in time to add depth for next week’s play-off challenge.
At the back Hamish Stewart returns at inside centre, with Jordan Petaia coming off the bench to join him in the midfield. Chris Feauai-Sautia comes in on the right wing while Hunter Paisami is the headline backline returnee on the bench.
Brumbies coach Dan McKellar has also welcomed back some key players, chief among them Wallaby centre Tevita Kuridrani. Nic White plays ahead of Joe Powell in what looks like a rotational selection ahead of the final. There has been a bit of a see-saw between the Brumbies scrumhalves just recently. Powell is out the squad altogether this week, with Ryan Lonergan, who started the week before last, coming back into the squad via the bench.
Scott Sio comes in at prop for James Slipper in a clear rotation move and Folau Fainga’a gets to start ahead of Connai McInerney at hooker in this game. There’s wholesale change in the second row, with Darcy Swain and Rob Valetini coming in.
The Reds are unbeaten in this competition at Suncorp Stadium and their desire to keep it that way ahead of the semi-final might just be enough for them to edge it.
Prediction: Reds by less than 7.
