If you just looked at the Vodacom URC log as a guide you’d think Saturday’s big north/south Cape Town derby between the DHL Stormers and the Vodacom Bulls was no race, with the hosts starting as clear favourites.
They probably should be favourites given they are at home and have won nine games in succession across two different competitions, with the nearest they’ve come to losing being the seven point win over the Lions. But it is much more marginal than many people would think, and we probably have to wait until the team announcements later on Friday before getting a better ida of what might happen.
There’s a lot of context needed when it comes to assessing why the Bulls find themselves coming to DHL Stadium fighting for survival. They underwent a change of coach in the off-season, they have just dispensed with two assistant coaches as an indicator that the switch from Jake White to Johan Ackermann was far from smooth and an instant fix. And if the Bulls play the game at full strength, meaning with all their Springboks in tow, it will be the first time they’ve done so this season.
The talk from Pretoria is that they will have all their Boks available, and that, as Stormers Bok scrumhalf Cobus Reinach pointed out this week, makes them a formidable unit. If they come to Cape Town with the team that lost to the Hollywoodbets Sharks a fortnight ago they lose, if they come with their best team then cohesion will be their biggest hurdle and they have a definite chance of winning.
We don’t know what the Stormers team is yet either, so all bets should really be off until we see it. Although with the Stormers there’s not as much of a difference between their team when the Boks are present and when the Boks are absent. Well, unless you forget that Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Damian Willemse are both generational players, of course.
The Bulls scrum at full strength is the one unit in the competition really capable of reversing the Stormers’ trend of playing off dominance in that phase. Wilco Louw is going to be a Stormer this time next year, but he won’t be on Saturday, and we know what he’s capable of. Ditto the other members of the Bulls front row. Plus most of the Bulls’ losing run has been without Ruan Nortje, one of their most influential players.
FULL STRENGTH SHARKS SHOULD CONTINUE REVIVAL
The Sharks are at home to the Lions in the other derby that makes up Saturday’s big South African URC double header and with Ox Nche and Aphelele Fassi both back, plus other players coming back from injury to add depth, they should be backed to continue the resurgence that started the week that JP Pietersen took charge for the first time.
Or let’s put it another way - if the Sharks don’t win against the Lions with the team they have taking the field, then it will be a massive step backwards. The Lions punched above their weight last time out against the Stormers and were unlucky perhaps not to have at least taken a draw from that game, and will have to do so again if they are to win.
Both teams desperately need the win if they are to satisfy their respective objectives - in the visiting team’s case they want to cement themselves in the top eight, which brings with it playoff and Investec Champions Cup qualification, while the Sharks need to get into top eight territory after their poor start to the season.
There were two games played overnight in Wales, with the Dragons continuing their revival by shocking the Scarlets 28-5 and the Ospreys doing likewise to Cardiff, who were second two weeks ago but are now likely to drop out of the top four with the winner of Friday night’s Irish derby between Ulster and Munster set to overtake them.
Glasgow Warriors should remain in the top four as they are hosting Zebre at the Scotstoun and should be expected to win.
Weekend Vodacom URC fixtures
Dragons 28 Scarlets 5 (played on Thursday night)
Ospreys 33 Cardiff 22 (played on Thursday night)
Ulster v Munster (Belfast, Friday 21.45)
Prediction: Ulster to scrape it.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Lions (Durban, Saturday 15.30)
Prediction: Hollywoodbets Sharks to win by 10
DHL Stormers v Vodacom Bulls (Cape Town, Saturday 18.00)
Prediction: Stormers to win by 5 or less
Benetton v Edinburgh (Treviso, Saturday 19.30)
Prediction: Benetton to win by 12
Leinster v Connacht (Dublin, Saturday 19.30)
Prediction: Leinster to win by 15
Glasgow Warriors v Zebre (Glasgow, 21.45)
Prediction: Glasgow to win by between 15 and 20
URC log: 1. Stormers 32 points after 7 games, 2. Munster 30 points after 8 games, 3. Cardiff 30 after 9 games, 4. Glasgow Warriors 29 after 8 games, 5. Ulster 27 after 7 games, 6. Leinster 25 after 8 games, 7. Benetton 18 after 8, 8. Lions 17 after 7, 9. Ospreys 17 after 9, 10. Connacht 16 after 7, 11. Vodacom Bulls 15 after 7, 12. Dragons 15 after 9, 13. Edinburgh 13 after 7, 14. Sharks 12 after 7, 15. Zebre 11 after 8, 16. Scarlets 9 after 8.